Abstract:

Aimed at the problem of low accuracy of traditional method for power system short-term load forecast, this paper presents a method for short-term load forecasting based on   BP-ANN（back-propagation artificial neural network）. The multiscale entropy method was used to analyze the short-term load data, whose results showed that the forecast points were related to both the prophase adjacent data and the periodical long-term historical load data. Meanwhile, with using autocorrelation analysis method, the suitable method for short-term load forecasting of Shaanxi power grid was presented based on BP-ANN, and applied in practical power system load. The results have shown that this method is simple, feasible, more practical, and with high precision.

Key words: power grid, short-term load forecasting, BP-ANN, multiscale entropy