Multiple Scenarios Based Transmission System Planning Considering Natural Disaster Risks

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000－7229.2017.04.004

Abstract

Abstract: ABSTRACT： Severe natural disasters may result in significant risks to the secure operation of a power system concerned. Hence, it is necessary to study the measures and methods for enhancing the capability of the power system to cope with natural disasters, and this is an important part in building a resilient power system. A fundamental measure of upgrading the resilience of a power system is to strengthen its structure, therefore it is an important research issue to develop transmission system planning methods with natural disasters as well as reasonable compromise between investment costs and risk losses well taken into account. Given this background, a mixed integer nonlinear programming model for transmission system planning is developed to comprehensively evaluate the economics of network investment and system operation, the reliability under normal system operation and the suffered risk under natural disasters. Two sets of representative scenarios are then generated to respectively describe the situations with fluctuant wind power outputs and random load variances as well as the ones with natural disasters, and are respectively employed to check security constraints and evaluate the risk concerned. The well-established particle swarm optimization algorithm is next employed to solve the presented optimization model under the hierarchical optimization framework. Finally, a typical 18-node sample power system is served for demonstrating the essential features of the developed method.

Key words: transmission system planning, natural disaster risk, scenario analysis, contingency scenario screening, hierarchical optimization

CLC Number:

TM 721.1

TAN Yan, YANG Wan,WEN Fushuan, LI Li, YANG Yinguo, HUA Wei. Multiple Scenarios Based Transmission System Planning Considering Natural Disaster Risks[J]. Electric Power Construction, 2017, 38(4): 26-.

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