YANG Zhiya, LI Huaqiang, HUANG Wenjing, YU Xueying
ABSTRACT： To overcome the problem of considering single factor of traditional cascading failure, this paper proposes a cascading failures forecast method with comprehensively considering power grid operation and network structure. Firstly, according to the system operation, we construct power flow related line outage probability model and Markov method based hidden failure model；next, based on the complex power grid theory, we propose grid electrical structure and protection relevance zone, and establish structural relevance model；finally, comprehensively considering power grid operation and network structure changing after failure, we present the method of cascading failure forecast so as to identity the lower-level failure which is vulnerable to initial disturbance and its influence range, which can make the prediction results more according with the actual operation of power grid. Simulation results on the IEEE 30-bus system verifies the validity and practicality of this method.
