我国能源活动碳排放占总碳排放85%以上,研究能源活动碳排放的变化规律对于实现碳达峰碳中和目标具有重要意义。首先,采用对数平均迪氏分解法(logarithmic mean Divisia index,LMDI)对1995—2017年我国能源消费碳排放变化的影响因素进行分解,从经济规模、产业结构、能源强度、能源结构、能源价格、人均可支配收入、人口规模这7个方面,模型给出了相关因素对一、二、三产业和居民部门碳排放变化的贡献。结果表明,对于3个产业部门,经济增长是碳排放增长的首要驱动力,而技术进步带来的能源强度下降、产业结构优化和能源消费结构改善呈现负效应,且产业结构优化和能源结构清洁化的作用越来越显著。对于居民部门,人均可支配收入是居民部门碳排放增长的推动力,而能源价格呈现明显的负效应。其次,设计了3种情景,运用可拓展的随机性的环境影响评估模型(stochastic impacts by regression population,affluence and technology,STIRPAT)对2030年我国能源碳排放进行预测,在以实现碳达峰为目标的低碳情景中,我国能源碳排放有望于2025—2029年实现达峰,峰值水平为101亿~110亿t。最后,为实现碳达峰碳中和目标,建议以构建中国能源互联网为基础平台,实施“清洁替代”和“电能替代”,推进能源转型。

Energy-related carbon emissions account for more than 85% of total carbon emissions in China, and the research on changes of energy-related carbon emissions is of great significance for achieving carbon peak and neutrality goals. Firstly, this paper uses the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) to decompose the impacting factors of China's energy-related CO₂ emissions changes from 1995 to 2017. From the aspects of economic scale, industry structure, energy intensity, energy structure, energy prices, per capita disposable income and population size, the model gives the contribution of related factors to energy-related CO₂ changes in primary, secondary, tertiary and residential sectors. The results show that for the three industry sectors, economic growth is the primary drive of CO₂ emission growth, while declining energy intensity, improved industrial structure and energy consumption structure show negative effects. For the residential sector, per capita disposable income and population size are the driving forces behind the CO₂ emission growth, and energy prices show a significant negative effect. Secondly, in order to predict China's energy-related CO₂ in 2030, three scenarios are designed and the Stochastic Impacts by Regression Population, Affluence and Technology (STIRPAT) model is implemented. In the low carbon scenario with the goal of achieving carbon peaks, China's energy-related CO₂ emissions are expected to peak around 2025-2029 and the level is about 10.1 billion to 11.0 billion tons. Finally, in order to achieve CO₂ emission peak before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060, it is recommended to build the China Energy Internet as the basic platform, to implement the clean replacement and electricity replacement, and accelerate the energy transition.

氢是可储存、可移动、能控制的二次清洁能源，是理想的电力能源载体。把氢作为能源进行开发利用，是应对全球气候变化、保障国家能源安全、实现全社会低碳转型的重要手段。作为重要的温室气体排放行业，电力行业尤其是发电行业，应尽快发展包括氢能在内的新型能源应用，实现行业的能源零碳转型。为此，根据“双碳”目标要求，分析了我国电力行业氢能应用现状，提出了当前氢能应用存在的主要问题。借鉴国际主要氢能国家电力应用发展经验，结合“再电气化”要求，从法规制定、政策支持、金融创新以及电力行业场景应用等角度为氢能电力应用提出发展建议，即“十四五”期间电力企业应做好氢能发展技术储备，抓住行业发展机会，积极推动电力系统能源转型升级。

Hydrogen is a secondary clean energy which can be stored, moved and controlled. It is an ideal power energy carrier. The development and utilization of hydrogen as an energy source is an important means to tackle the climate change, ensure the national energy security and realize low-carbon transformation of the whole society. As an important greenhouse gas emission industry, the power industry, especially the power generation industry, should develop new energy applications including hydrogen as soon as possible to achieve zero-carbon energy transformation in the industry. According to the requirements of the “double carbon” goal, this paper analyzed the current situation of hydrogen application in China’s power industry, and put forward the main problems existing in the current hydrogen application. Based on the experience of power application development in major international hydrogen countries, combined the requirements of “re-electrification”, this paper put forward suggestions for the development of hydrogen power application from the perspectives of regulation formulation, policy support, financial innovation, and power industry scenario application. That is, during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, it is necessary to make good technical reserves for hydrogen development, seize the opportunities for industrial development, and actively promote the transformation and upgrading of power system energy.

我国沿海地区经济发达,能源需求量大,探索海上风电制氢为其他行业供能具有现实意义。比较了海上风电输电上岸后的两种利用模式:1)风电售电模式;2)风电制氢模式。首先通过比较碱性(alkaline,ALK)电解槽和质子交换膜(proton exchange membrane,PEM)电解槽的工作特性,建立了制氢系统产氢量模型。其次,建立两种模式的经济分析模型;最后,结合净现值和平准化制氢成本比较了不同风能利用模式的经济性。结果表明在当前技术情景下,氢价取46.93元/kg、风电上网电价取0.531 8元/(kW·h)时,风电制氢模式比风电售电模式更具有经济性,氢价是影响制氢模式经济性的最大因素,而氢价取决于未来氢市场的供需关系,不确定性较大。

The coastal areas of China are economically developed and have a large energy demand. It is of practical significance to explore the production of hydrogen using offshore wind power to supply energy to other industries. This paper compares two utilization modes of offshore wind power after transmission on shore, i.e., direct sales and use for hydrogen production. Firstly, by comparing the power characteristics of alkaline (ALK) and proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyzers, the hydrogen production model is established. Secondly, the economic models of the two modes are established. Finally, the economy of different wind energy utilization modes are compared using net present value (NPV) and levelized cost of hydrogen production (LCOH). The results show that, under the current technical scenario, when the hydrogen price is 46.93 yuan/kg and the feed-in electricity price of wind power is 0.5318 yuan/(kW·h), the wind power used for hydrogen production is more economical than the wind power sales mode. The hydrogen price is the biggest factor affecting the economics of the hydrogen production model, where the hydrogen price depends on the supply and demand relationship in the future hydrogen market, and there is great uncertainty.

As compared with carbon metallurgy, a concept of non-carbon metallurgy to combine solar energy, wind power and metallurgy technology is advanced to expound the idea of non-carbon metallurgy with photo-wind complement each other. Non-carbon metallurgy technology includes 4 unit technologies- photo-electricity transformation, storage cell, electric power distribution and control unit and metallurgical reactor. Test of non-carbon metallurgy is carried out by a 1 kg non-carbon metallurgy test furnace system designed with technology integration and bring forth original ideas, and system parameters are verified by preliminary energy analysis on the system. Test results show that melting temperature more than 1 600 °C is gotten by directly using the technology of photo-wind complement each other to melt various metals.

煤电机组基于现有相关技术体系，可以通过“三步走”减碳战略，即通过技术减碳(节能降耗和深度调峰)实现低碳化，通过燃料脱碳实现零碳化，通过烟气脱碳实现负碳化，逐步实现转型，成为具备煤电机组可靠、可调和稳定等所有优点，同时又解决其高碳排放这一痛点的优质新能源火电。生物质火电作为一种零碳新能源，可以同时破解“风光新能源加电储能无法真正保障电网安全”和“传统煤电稳定可调但碳排放强度过高”这2个困局，成为我国未来低碳电力供应的中坚力量，为尽早实现以新能源为主体的新型电力系统作出其历史性贡献。

Based on the existing relevant technical system, coal-fired power units can be gradually transformed through the “three-step” carbon reduction strategy, that is, through technical carbon reduction (coal consumption reduction and deep peak shaving) to achieve low carbonization, through fuel decarburization to achieve zero carbonization, through flue gas decarburization to achieve negative carbonization. The strategy makes coal-fired power units have advantages of reliable, harmonic and stable, and solves the high carbon emissions of the units. As a kind of zero-carbon new energy, biomass thermal power can simultaneously solve the following two dilemmas: the wind and solar new energy power plus energy storage can’t really ensure the safety of power grid; the traditional coal power is stable and adjustable, but the carbon emission intensity is too high. Biomass thermal power has become the backbone of China’s future low-carbon power supply, and will make historical contributions to the early realization of a new power system with new energy as the main body.

对钢铁企业实施有效的生产运行控制是企业在保证产品质量和按订单生产的前提下实现降本增效的重要途径,从钢铁流程式生产的单元制造设备与流程协调优化两个层面来阐述钢铁企业的生产运行控制技术。基于钢铁企业的生产管控信息系统现状,重点分析了钢铁企业从生产订单、生产批量计划、生产调度到生产执行不同层次的计划调度技术特点,归纳了存在的主要问题|指出为实现钢铁制造流程的协调、有序和高效,应提升钢铁企业信息系统的计划调度功能,以强化对生产运行过程的调控和优化。据此对该领域未来的工作重点和发展方向进行了展望。