气候变化对人类社会的影响越来越受关注，随之而来的一系列极端天气引发系统断电的风险也越来越显著。为应对气候变化尤其是极端天气，人类社会需采取减缓和适应2种应对策略，对于发展中国家与小岛国，由于气候变化已经发生，因此气候问题将首先是适应问题。为解决电力系统如何从各个环节完整地适应气候变化问题，建立了一个适应气候变化的电力系统发展体系，提出一种涵盖极端气象因素的电力系统发展路径构建方法。在总结各种极端天气对电力系统影响的基础上，对电网的脆弱性进行评价；研究了适应极端天气的总体策略，并提出电力系统适应极端天气事件的方案，即规划–建设–应急管理–评估（planning-construction-emergency management-assessment，PCEA）抗灾体系。在规划阶段重点进行保底电网规划，构建不停电最小电网主干网；基于方案不同阶段的应用实例，验证了PCEA体系可以促使电力系统更好地适应极端天气。

The impact of climate change on human society has attracted more and more attention, and the risk of power outage caused by a series of extreme weather is becoming more and more significant. In order to deal with climate change, especially extreme weather, human society needs to adopt two coping strategies of mitigation and adaptation. For the developing countries and small island countries, since climate change has already taken place, the climate problem will first be adaptation. In order to solve the problem of how the power system can fully adapt to climate change from all aspects, a power system development system adapted to climate change was established, and a construction method of power system development path covering extreme meteorological factors was proposed. On the basis of summarizing the impacts of various extreme weather on the power system, the vulnerability of power grid was evaluated. The overall strategy of adapting to extreme weather was studied, and the scheme of power system adapting to extreme weather events was proposed, namely planning-construction-emergency management-assessment (PCEA) disaster resistance system. In the planning stage, the study focused on the minimum power grid planning and built the minimum power grid backbone network without power outage. Based on the application examples in different stages of the scheme, it was verified that the PCEA system can make the power system better adapt to the extreme weather.

Once climate change brings various stresses and disturbances on the receptor system, the receptor system will transfer these stresses and disturbances to other systems through its connection with them, resulting in the continuous extension of climate change effects in time and space, forming a complex climate change impact chain. At present, studies on the impacts of climate change mostly focus on the direct impacts, while the indirect impacts are rarely considered. The incomplete understanding of the impact transmission of climate change is one of the main constraints in addressing climate change. It is of great significance to explore the formation mechanism of the impact chain of climate change. This research analyzed the characteristics of climate change impacts, explored the formation mechanism of climate change impact chains, defined the connotation and classification of climate change impact chains, clarified the impact levels of climate change, and proposed ways to cope with climate change impact chains. The results showed that the impacts of climate change were extensive, different, persistent, transferable, transformable, and sometime sudden. When climate change acted on the direct receptors, the impacts of climate change would be transmitted along the food chain in the ecosystem, along the industrial chain in the economic system, and along the social relationship chain in the social system. The transmission of impact chain took the form of material flow, energy flow and information flow. The impacts of climate change always rose from low to high levels, along changes in resource endowments to natural production, economic production systems and social systems. It is believed that the effective control or cutting off of the transmission of adverse impacts of climate change can effectively reduce the impact risks and losses of climate change. The impact chain of climate change and its formation mechanism provide ideas and approaches for people to deal with climate change comprehensively.

针对现有电力系统可靠性评估方法均存在一定的局限性,难以从总体上对系统可靠性进行分析的问题,提出了一种新型电力系统可靠性分析方法.通过引入图论确定线路和节点的状态,并根据节点的可靠性程度对给定的设备组合进行分类.采用可靠性框图评估每一节点的可靠性,并通过在MATLAB中搭建IEEE-9节点系统验证方法的有效性.结果表明,提出的方法可以较好地应用于IEEE-9节点系统中,能够将线路中的节点可靠性进行排序,其准确率可达97.16％,实现了电力系统的安全性和可靠性的有效分析.

Aiming at the problem that the existing reliability evaluation methods for power system have some limitations resulting in difficulties in comprehensively analysing the system reliability, a new reliability analysis method for power system was proposed. Through the introduction of graph theory, the states of lines and nodes were determined, and the given equipment combination was classified according to the reliability degree of nodes. In addition, the reliability of each node was evaluated by a reliability block diagram, and the validity of as-proposed method was verified by building an IEEE-9 nodes system in MATLAB. The results show that the as-proposed method can be well applied to the IEEE-9 nodes system, and the reliability of nodes in lines can be sequenced, with an accuracy of 97.16％, to realize the effective analysis for the security and reliability of power system.

随着风电和光伏等可再生能源通过多微网(multiple microgrids,MMGs)的形式接入配电网(distribution network,DN),其不确定性会给配电网与多微网系统联合运行的可靠性、经济性带来挑战。对此,文章提出了一种考虑风光相关性的配电网与多微网数据驱动鲁棒调度方法。首先采用分布式调度方法建立配电网与多微网调度框架,分别建立配电网调度模型与微网二阶段鲁棒调度模型,以联络线功率作为两者的耦合参数;考虑风光出力的不确定性与时空相关性,采用数据驱动算法构建风-光出力不确定集合,从而建立微网数据驱动鲁棒调度模型;最后提出一种基于极限场景的改进列约束生成算法(column-and-constraint generation,C&CG)求解微网鲁棒调度问题,并采用目标级联分析法(analytical target cascading,ATC)对配电网与多微网整体调度问题进行求解。仿真结果表明,该配电网与多微网的数据驱动鲁棒调度策略可以捕捉风-光时空相关性,在保证系统调度鲁棒性时提高调度的经济性,并具有良好的收敛性。

As renewable energy generations represented by wind and photovoltaic power connect to the distribution network (DN) through multiple micro-grids (MMGs), the uncertainty will bring challenges to the reliability and economy of the operation of the DN and MMGs. In response to this, this paper proposes a data-driven robust dispatch method for DN and MMGs considering correlation between wind and solar output. Firstly, a distributed dispatch method is adopted to establish the dispatch model of the DN and a two-stage dispatch model of the MMGs, with the tie-line power as the coupling parameter of the two. Aiming at the uncertainty of renewable energy output as well as the temporal and spatial correlations, the wind-solar output ellipsoid uncertain set is constructed based on the data-driven algorithm, thereby establishing the two-stage data-driven robust dispatch model of the micro-grid. Finally, an improved column and constraint generation algorithm based on extreme scenarios is proposed to solve the robust dispatch problem of the micro-grid, and the analytical target cascading method is used to solve the overall dispatch problem of DN and MMGs. The simulation results show that the proposed method can capture the spatial-temporal correlation between wind and solar, improve the economy of dispatch while ensuring the robustness of the DN and MMGs dispatch, and has good convergence.

随着分布式电源的规模化接入,针对极端灾害引起的大规模停电事故难以采用传统的配电网故障恢复策略。首先,提出了极端灾害下考虑源网荷储协调优化提升配电网韧性的策略框架。其次,针对分布式能源出力的不可控性和时变性,建立了光储和风储系统模型(optical storage and wind storage system,OWS)。同时,考虑到负荷的价格需求弹性,建立了极端灾害下的负荷需求响应(load demand response,LDR)模型。再次,以负荷恢复的总价值最大为目标,考虑LDR补偿、故障抢修与网络重构过程中的网损成本,建立了考虑源网荷储协同优化的配电网韧性提升模型。最后,在改进的PG&E 69节点配电网系统算例中验证了所提策略的有效性,结果表明利用多能互补的特性进行源网荷储的协同优化有利于提高配电网的故障恢复能力。

With the large-scale access of distributed power generation, the traditional fault-recovery strategy for distribution network is difficult to be applied to large-scale blackouts caused by extreme disasters. Firstly, this paper proposes a strategic framework to optimize and improve the resilience of distribution network considering the coordination of source, network, load and storage under extreme disasters. Secondly, aiming at the uncontrollability and time variability of distributed energy output, the PV-storage and wind-storage (PWS) system models are established. At the same time, considering the relationship between electricity price demand response (DR) and load demand, a load demand response (LDR) model under extreme disasters is established. Thirdly, aiming at maximizing the total value of load recovery, considering the cost of network loss in the process of LDR compensation, fault repair and network reconstruction, a resilience promotion model for distribution network considering the source-network-load-storage collaborative optimization is established. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified in an improved PG &E 69-node distribution network system. The results show that the source-network-load-storage cooperative optimization according to the characteristics of multi-energy complementation is beneficial to improve the fault recovery ability of the distribution network.