PDF(1657 KB)
A Practical Method for Probabilistic Analysis of Electric Power and Energy Balance of New Power System
LI Wanru, GUO Jincheng, WANG Jianxue, WANG Xiuli, YANG Qian, MA Qian
Electric Power Construction ›› 2025, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (9) : 1-12.
PDF(1657 KB)
PDF(1657 KB)
A Practical Method for Probabilistic Analysis of Electric Power and Energy Balance of New Power System
[Objective] The use of deterministic methods to construct power and energy balance tables is unsuitable because of the strong randomness and frequent occurrence of extreme events caused by a high proportion of new energy grid connections. [Methods] Based on a widely recognized balance table form， this study constructed probabilistic scenarios and designed a practical method for the probabilistic analysis of power and energy balance. Specifically， a probabilistic analysis framework for power and energy balance was established， and methods for constructing typical， edge， and extreme scenarios were proposed. The overall framework of the probabilistic power and energy balance table was designed， and a balancing risk assessment based on indicators of the balance margin and a new energy consumption index was conducted. For key periods with severe balance risks， an index system for power and energy balance analysis was designed， and a refined balance state evaluation was performed using a time-series production simulation. [Results] The results of the probabilistic power and energy balance table of the improved ROTS test system showed that it is in a tight balance state throughout the year. In a typical scenario with a probability of 91.36% in November， the power and energy balance could be maintained. In the tightest supply scenario in November， the energy balance margin was 97%， and the maximum power shortage was 2.66 GW， which are close to the results of the time-series production simulation. [Conclusions] The test system examples suggest that the proposed method can adapt well to a high proportion of new energy grid-connected scenarios and adopt different dimensions of analysis based on balancing risks， which can satisfy the requirements of engineering applications.
power and energy balance / probabilistic analysis / multi-scenarios construction / time-series production simulation / balancing risk
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With the accelerated construction of new types of power systems, the proportion of integrated renewable energy sources has increased rapidly. Achieving an accurate, efficient, and practical power balance analysis under strong uncertainty of the source and load is a basic theme in the dispatching, controlling, and planning of new power systems. Hence, the shortcomings of current research in the description and calculation of the balance state are reviewed by summarizing the research objects, analytical models and methods, evaluation indices, and applications of power and quantity balance analyses. Based on the two key scientific issues of “electric power and energy balance state description under strong randomness and strategy” and “electric power and energy balance analysis and calculation under the centralized regulation-coordination autonomous balancing mechanism,” a research theoretical system for electric power and energy balance is proposed. First, this system covers “balance boundary generation-balance analysis and calculation-balance state assessment- balance early warning-balance capacity improvement.” Then, research ideas and technical schemes are proposed, including random balanced scenario generation, multi-period coordination decoupling balanced analysis, balanced state evaluation index system design, multi-spatial-temporal hierarchical balanced early warning, and balanced cooperation mechanism construction. Finally, some key technologies are worthy of consideration in further research on electric power and energy balance analyses in new types of power systems. |
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