Ultra-Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Prediction Based on the Cloud-Irradiance-Power Coupling Mechanism

SUN Yingxuan, YANG Ping, SUN Tao, DUAN Kaiyue, JIAN Wenqing

Electric Power Construction ›› 2026, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (3) : 12-23.

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Electric Power Construction ›› 2026, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (3) : 12-23. DOI: 10.12204/j.issn.1000-7229.2026.03.002
Key Technologies for High-Precision Prediction, Risk Assessment and Operation of Meteorology-Sensitive Power Systems ·Hosted by YU Guangzheng,YANG Mao,LI Gengfeng,LI Ran,LI Yuanzheng,WAN Can·

Ultra-Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Prediction Based on the Cloud-Irradiance-Power Coupling Mechanism

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Abstract

[Objective] To address the challenge of declining accuracy in photovoltaic power prediction caused by rapidly changing cloud conditions, this paper proposes an ultra-short-term photovoltaic (PV) power prediction method based on the cloud-irradiance-power coupling mechanisms. [Methods] First, a two-stream convolutional network is constructed to extract spatial and motion features of clouds, while a Transformer encoder is employed to capture the temporal features of irradiance sequences. Then, cross-attention mechanism is applied to fuse these features for multi-step ahead prediction of surface irradiance. Finally, to overcome the limitations of purely data-driven approaches, this study constructs a photovoltaic power prediction model by using irradiance forecasts as inputs and incorporating physical constraints governing the surface irradiance-to-power output conversion. [Results] Experimental results show that the proposed irradiance prediction method outperforms baseline models under various weather conditions. Furthermore, using the predicted irradiance as input significantly improves PV power forecasting accuracy compared to methods that directly incorporate cloud information. The introduction of physical constraints further enhances PV power prediction performance and improves the model’s generalization capability. [Conclusions] This study demonstrates that deeply mining the impact of dynamic 3D cloud information on irradiance and incorporating physical prior knowledge between irradiance and PV power represents an effective way to enhance the accuracy and model generalization capability of ultra-short-term PV power prediction.

Key words

ultra-short-term photovoltaic power forecasting / 3D cloud information / feature fusion / surface irradiance prediction / irradiance-power coupling mechanism

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SUN Yingxuan , YANG Ping , SUN Tao , et al . Ultra-Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Prediction Based on the Cloud-Irradiance-Power Coupling Mechanism[J]. Electric Power Construction. 2026, 47(3): 12-23 https://doi.org/10.12204/j.issn.1000-7229.2026.03.002

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Abstract
随着分布式光伏在配电网的渗透率不断上升,其出力波动将成为调度运行中不可忽略的一项不确定因素。基于同一地区光伏出力变化的相关性,提出一种基于空间相关性的分布式光伏出力预测方法。先对同一地区集中式、分布式光伏出力历史数据做无遮归一化,以无遮系数表征光伏出力不确定性;再由K-means聚类方法对天气情况分类,建立基于Copula函数的各类天气工况下光伏出力的相关性模型;最后根据集中式光伏出力信息实现分布式光伏出力预测。以我国北部某城市光伏电站数据为算例,验证了该方法的有效性。
ZHANG Jia’an, WANG Kunyue, CHEN Jian, et al. Research on prediction of distributed photovoltaic output considering spatial relevance[J]. Electric Power Construction, 2020, 41(3): 47-53.
With the increasing proportion of distributed photovoltaic (DPV) power in distribution network, the fluctuation of its power output will become a non-negligible uncertain factor in power grid dispatch and operation. On the basis of the correlation of photovoltaic power generation in one region, a prediction method for distributed photovoltaic output is proposed on the basis of spatial correlation. Firstly, the historical data of centralized and distributed photovoltaic output in the same region are normalized to uncovered coefficient which represents the randomness of photovoltaic output. Then, the weather conditions are classified by K-means clustering. According to Copula theory, the correlation model of photovoltaic output under various weather conditions is established. Finally, the distributed photovoltaic output is predicted according to the information of centralized photovoltaic output. The validity of the proposed method is verified by using an example of a photovoltaic power station in a city of northern China.

Funding

National Key Research and Development Program of China(2023YFB4203100)
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