Small-Sample Wind Power Forecasting Based on A Time-Series Large Model

LIU Junjie, LIAO Wenlong, ZHANG Chengrui, YAO Beini, ZANG Tianlei, YANG Dechang, HU Qinran

Electric Power Construction ›› 2026, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (9) : 31-44.

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Electric Power Construction ›› 2026, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (9) : 31-44. DOI: 10.12204/j.issn.1000-7229.2026.09.003
Key Technologies for High-Precision Prediction, Risk Assessment and Operation of Meteorology-Sensitive Power Systems ·Hosted by YU Guangzheng, YANG Mao, LI Gengfeng, LI Ran, LI Yuanzheng, WAN Can·

Small-Sample Wind Power Forecasting Based on A Time-Series Large Model

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Abstract

[Objective] Although mainstream deep learning models have achieved excellent performance in wind power forecasting,they rely heavily on large amounts of historical data. In small-sample scenarios,such as newly built wind farms or situations involving privacy protection where data availability is limited,their prediction performance often declines significantly. To address this issue,a small-sample wind power forecasting method based on a time-series large model is proposed. [Methods] First,mean scaling and uniform binning techniques are employed to perform per-sample normalization and quantization of wind power time series,converting them into discrete token sequences so that they match the input format required by large models. Second,a text-to-text transfer transformer architecture is introduced as the core forecasting model. By leveraging the general representation capability obtained through pre-training on large-scale and multi-domain time-series data,the model is able to extract deep temporal features from wind power sequences. Finally,for the small-sample data from a specific wind farm,a lightweight fine-tuning strategy based on low-rank adaptation is adopted to efficiently adapt the model while preserving the knowledge learned during pre-training. [Results] Simulation results demonstrate that under data-scarce conditions,the proposed method outperforms several mainstream deep learning models in wind power forecasting tasks across different seasons,forecasting horizons,and regions. Compared with benchmark models,the root mean square error and mean absolute error are reduced by 15.18%-33.59% and 10.18%-34.94%,respectively. [Conclusions] The proposed method effectively uses the transfer learning capability of time-series large models to achieve high-accuracy wind power forecasting under small-sample conditions. It provides a feasible and efficient technical solution for high-precision wind power forecasting in data-limited scenarios such as newly built wind farms.

Key words

wind power forecasting / machine learning / large model / small sample

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LIU Junjie , LIAO Wenlong , ZHANG Chengrui , et al . Small-Sample Wind Power Forecasting Based on A Time-Series Large Model[J]. Electric Power Construction. 2026, 47(9): 31-44 https://doi.org/10.12204/j.issn.1000-7229.2026.09.003

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Abstract
目的 低温天气给包含高比例风电等新能源的电力系统运行带来了挑战,提升低温天气下的短期风电功率预测精度,将为电力系统的调度运行提供有效的决策信息。为此,提出一种低温天气下考虑机组运行状态聚类的风电功率预测方法。 方法 利用机组运行状态与保护控制信息,采用模糊C均值(fuzzy C-means,FCM)聚类算法对风电机组进行聚类;提出一种基于支持向量机的风机运行状态分组预测方法,预测风机是否处于正常运行状态;采用集成学习中的LightGBM算法预测风机正常运行时的功率值;基于运行状态和功率值的预测结果,给出风电场总体输出功率。最后,以冀北某风电场为例进行分析,验证所提方法的有效性。 结果 所提方法充分利用风机低温保护控制行为特征,准确预测了风电机组的关键切机时间,并给出停机容量,有效地拟合了风电功率曲线变化规律,将风电功率预测精度提升至90%以上。 结论 所提方法可为电力调度控制提供有效预测信息,也为大风等其他极端天气下的短期风电功率预测提供了参考。
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Footnotes

作者贡献声明(Authors' Contributions): 刘俊杰起草论文、修订论文、确定研究对象范围、收集数据、采集、清洗与分析数据,廖文龙参与论文修订、论文最终版本修订,张丞睿进行对比实验、实验分析,姚贝妮参与文献调研与整理,臧天磊、杨德昌、胡秦然参与论文修订、论文最终版本修订。所有作者均阅读并同意了论文终稿内容。

利益冲突声明(Conflict of Interests): 所有作者声明不存在利益冲突。

Funding

National Natural Science Foundation of China(52377127)
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