Joint Prediction and Scheduling Optimization Strategy for Hybrid Pumped Storage Power Stations

ZHAO Taiyan, TAN Zhenfei, YAN Zheng, YANG Yuqi, XU Yang, LIU Yaxin

Electric Power Construction ›› 2026, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (9) : 155-166.

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Electric Power Construction ›› 2026, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (9) : 155-166. DOI: 10.12204/j.issn.1000-7229.2026.09.012
Renewable Energy and Energy Storage

Joint Prediction and Scheduling Optimization Strategy for Hybrid Pumped Storage Power Stations

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Abstract

[Objective] Hybrid pumped storage power stations (HPSPS),integrating dual functions of power generation and energy storage,are emerging flexible resources crucial for the secure operation of power grids and accommodating high penetration of renewable energy. However,situated within cascaded river basins and characterized by complex hydraulic-electrical couplings,their optimal operation in electricity market environments faces technical challenges. To this end,this paper proposes a joint prediction and scheduling optimization method for HPSPS. [Methods] First,an operational constraint model for HPSPS considering hydro-electrical couplings is formulated. Subsequently,a joint price prediction and operational scheduling optimization method tailored for HPSPS is proposed,and a joint loss function integrating prediction errors and decision deviations is formulated,which addresses the drawback of market revenue losses caused by the traditional paradigm of separating price forecasting from scheduling operations. Finally,simulations are conducted based on data from a cascaded hydropower hub in Zhejiang Province and day-ahead electricity prices. [Results] The results show that the proposed method increases the total revenue of the HPSPS by 3.68% and can effectively adapt to diverse market price and water inflow scenarios. [Conclusions] The proposed method provides technical and methodological support for HPSPS to participate in electricity market transactions and improve their operational profitability.

Key words

hybrid pumped storage power station / cascade hydropower station / electricity market / joint prediction and scheduling optimization / machine learning

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ZHAO Taiyan , TAN Zhenfei , YAN Zheng , et al . Joint Prediction and Scheduling Optimization Strategy for Hybrid Pumped Storage Power Stations[J]. Electric Power Construction. 2026, 47(9): 155-166 https://doi.org/10.12204/j.issn.1000-7229.2026.09.012

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Objectives Under the current electricity price mechanism, it is difficult for Xinjiang pumped storage power station to fully recover the cost through the arbitrage of peak-valley price difference and participation in electric auxiliary services. Therefore, the capacity and electricity charge dredging mechanism of pumped storage power station is studied. Methods Based on the calculation of the electricity cost of Xinjiang pumped storage capacity, the problems existing in the cost dredging are analyzed. The dredging path of “market-oriented + transmission and distribution electricity price” is proposed for Xinjiang pumped storage power station. That is, the cost is recovered by transmission and distribution price before the maturity of power market construction, and the cost is recovered by marketization after the maturity of power market construction. Results Compared with the pure transmission and distribution electricity price recovery, the “market-oriented + transmission and distribution electricity price” method has higher feasibility in dredging capacity electricity price and the increase of transmission and distribution electricity price decrease by more than 90%, which is a feasible model to calm the excessive rise of transmission and distribution electricity price. Conclusions As a supplementary scheme for the operation cost recovery of pumped storage power stations, the research results will provide a broad market trading space for the pumped storage power stations.

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随着小火电、储能、风电、光伏及电动汽车等分布式电源的大规模接入,为优化配电网的系统运行成本和输电损耗,根据配电网内大量分布式电源的出力以及不同时段的负荷需求,建立多目标优化模型并对不同配电网的线路规划方案进行分析。采用改进的多目标灰狼算法结合前推回代潮流算法进行优化计算,实现每个节点的电压和分布式电源的出力优化。构建具备不同典型特征的规划路线场景,分析电动汽车接入不同的节点对线路损耗和系统运行成本的影响,得到最佳的线路规划方案。采用IEEE 33节点进行仿真计算,结果表明:与传统单一的供电方式相比,分布式电源接入后输电损耗降低了52.39%;利用新能源+电动汽车充电桩,可以有效降低系统运行成本,为未来大规模充电桩接入配电网提供参考。
Wang Difan, Wei Fei, Jiang Deyu, et al. Optimization planning of distribution networks with multiple energy resources and energy storage coordination[J]. Integrated Intelligent Energy, 2025, 47(8): 49-57.

With the large-scale integration of distributed energy resources such as small thermal power units, energy storage systems, wind turbines, photovoltaic systems, and electric vehicle charging stations, it is essential to optimize the system operating costs and transmission loss in distribution networks. Based on the output of multiple distributed energy resources and the load demand at different time periods within distribution networks, a multi-objective optimization model was established to analyze different line planning schemes for distribution networks. An improved multi-objective grey wolf optimizer integrated with the forward/backward sweep algorithm was used for optimization to optimize voltage and output of distributed energy resources at each node. Planning route scenarios with different typical characteristics were developed to analyze the effect of electric vehicle access at different nodes on line loss and system operating costs, thereby obtaining the optimal line planning scheme. Simulation calculations were conducted using the IEEE 33-bus system. The results showed that compared to traditional single-source power supply methods, the integration of distributed energy resources reduced transmission loss by 52.39%. Additionally, the hybrid system combining renewable energy with electric vehicle charging stations could effectively reduce system operating costs, providing a reference for large-scale integration of charging stations into distribution networks in the future.

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Abstract
综合能源系统(IES)优化调度受可再生能源、负荷等不确定因素波动的影响。无法准确描述和处理这些不确定参数将导致系统可靠性受限,缺乏细化的建模和优化方法使不确定因素分析变得更加复杂。为完整、系统性地分析不确定性建模和优化方法,梳理了IES的结构、不确定性来源和建模方式,归纳总结了蒙特卡罗模拟、信息差距决策理论、区间法、鲁棒优化和数据驱动法及其在不确定性优化中的应用和研究。研究发现,不存在单一最佳的优化方法,多种方法的优势互补可实现IES经济效益和环境效益的最大化。根据当前研究的难点与热点,对未来不确定性优化方向进行了展望。
Song Kun, Gu Wenbo. Research progress on modeling and optimization of integrated energy systems considering uncertainty[J]. Integrated Intelligent Energy, 2025, 47(7): 32-43.

The optimal scheduling of integrated energy systems (IES) is affected by fluctuations in uncertain factors such as renewable energy and load. Failure to accurately describe and process these uncertain parameters will constrain system reliability, and the lack of refined modeling and optimization methods makes uncertainty analysis more complex. To comprehensively and systematically analyze uncertainty modeling and optimization methods, the structure of IES, sources of uncertainty, and modeling approaches are reviewed. Monte Carlo simulation, information gap decision theory, interval methods, robust optimization, and data-driven methods are summarized, along with their applications and studies in uncertainty optimization. Research findings indicate that there is no single best optimization method. The complementarity of multiple methods can maximize the economic and environmental benefits of IES. Based on current research challenges and hotspots, future directions for uncertainty optimization are outlined.

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Abstract
当前,全球能源结构正经历深刻转型,以风能、太阳能为代表的可再生能源凭借其清洁性和可持续性,日益成为电力供应的关键组成部分。但这类能源固有的间歇性和波动性对电力系统的频率、电压及整体稳定性带来严峻挑战,威胁供电的安全性与可靠性。为有效应对上述挑战,电力系统亟须引入先进的技术与方法,以保障其运行的可靠性与效率。系统分析了仿真技术、频率调节策略以及人工智能在新型电力系统中的作用。深入剖析了混合仿真从传统串行到高效并行及智能化的发展路径,探讨了虚拟同步发电机与多类型储能在应对惯量下降和频率调控中的关键作用,并全面评估了人工智能在新能源发电预测、负荷预测及智能微电网调度中的最新进展与潜力。最后指出,应充分发挥储能技术和人工智能的支撑作用,构建更加灵活的市场机制和资源配置体系,为新型电力系统的稳定运行奠定基础。
Ding Xinyu, Zhou Qingcai, Chi Yaodan, et al. Research progress on modeling, control, and source-load prediction of new-type power systems[J]. Integrated Intelligent Energy, 2026, 48(3): 1-14.

Currently, the global energy structure is undergoing a profound transformation. Renewable energy sources represented by wind and solar power are increasingly becoming key components of power supply due to their cleanliness and sustainability. However, the inherent intermittency and volatility of these energy resources pose significant challenges to the frequency, voltage, and overall stability of power systems, threatening the security and reliability of power supply. To address these challenges effectively, it is crucial to integrate advanced technologies and methods to ensure reliable and efficient operation of power systems. The roles of simulation technologies, frequency regulation strategies, and artificial intelligence in new-type power systems are systematically analyzed. The evolution of hybrid simulation, from traditional serial methods to high-performance parallel and intelligent approaches, is analyzed in depth. The key roles of virtual synchronous generators and multi-type energy storage in mitigating inertia reduction and frequency regulation are examined. Additionally, recent advances and potential of artificial intelligence in renewable energy power generation prediction, load prediction, and smart microgrid scheduling are comprehensively evaluated. It is emphasized that the supporting roles of energy storage technologies and artificial intelligence should be fully leveraged, and more flexible market mechanisms and resource allocation systems should be established, thereby laying a foundation for the stable operation of new-type power systems.

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Abstract
随着全球可再生能源需求的持续增长,如何高效、智能地管理和预测可再生能源发电已成为能源领域的关键研究课题。探讨了人工智能技术在可再生能源发电中多维数据处理和智能预测方面的应用,并重点分析了其在处理复杂且具有高可变性的数据中的作用。从气象条件和时空特征的角度研究了多维特征挖掘技术在风能和太阳能发电数据处理中的作用。系统分析了在不同时空尺度和多场景下应用的智能预测技术,特别聚焦于机器学习和深度学习模型,这些模型因在处理非线性、高维数据时的优异表现而备受关注。最新研究成果的全面分析验证了这些技术在提升风能和太阳能发电预测准确性和效率方面的显著优势。此外,深入探讨了当前技术的优势与局限,并展望了未来的发展方向,尤其强调了提升智能预测模型鲁棒性、实时性及其在不同场景下适应能力的重要性。这些研究为进一步推动可再生能源领域的发展提供了理论依据和实践指导。
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As global demand for renewable energy continues to surge, efficiently and intelligently managing and forecasting renewable energy generation has become a pivotal research objective in energy sector. Applications of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies in the multi-dimensional data processing and intelligent forecasting of renewable energy generation are explored, focusing on its role in handling complex and highly variable data. First,the role of multi-dimensional feature mining techniques in processing wind and solar energy generation data from the perspective of meteorological conditions and spatiotemporal features is studied. Subsequently, a systematic analysis on intelligent forecasting techniques applied across different spatiotemporal scales and scenarios is offered, with particular emphasis on its usage in machine learning and deep learning models. These models have gained significant attention for their outstanding performance in dealing with nonlinear and high-dimensional data. Thorough reviews on the latest research findings demonstrate the substantial benefits of these AI technologies in enhancing the accuracy and efficiency of wind and solar energy generation forecasts. Additionally, it delves into the strengths and limitations of existing technologies and their development directions, particularly emphasizing the importance of improving the robustness, real-time processing capabilities, and adaptability of intelligent forecasting models in various scenarios. This study provides theoretical insights and practical guidance for advancing the development of renewable energy.

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Footnotes

作者贡献声明(Authors' Contributions): 赵泰岩负责算例的设计与仿真,撰写论文初稿;谭振飞设计研究思路与方案,审核与修订论文;严正提出论文框架;杨钰琪参与文献调研与整理;徐杨参与算例数据分析;刘亚新参与论文撰写与修订。所有作者均阅读并同意了论文终稿内容。

利益冲突声明(Conflict of Interests): 所有作者声明不存在利益冲突。

Funding

National Natural Science Foundation of China(52577120)
Open Research Fund of National Engineering Research Center of Water Resources Efficient Utilization and Engineering Safety(1524020003)
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