PDF(1742 KB)
Risk Evaluation for Inter Provincial Spot Trading of Large Users in High-Penetration Renewable Energy System
YAO Yin, GAO Luqing, ZHOU Bo, MA Hengrui, LI Dongdong, LIN Shunfu
Electric Power Construction ›› 2026, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (9) : 201-212.
PDF(1742 KB)
PDF(1742 KB)
Risk Evaluation for Inter Provincial Spot Trading of Large Users in High-Penetration Renewable Energy System
[Objective] In recent years, the installed capacity of renewable energy in China has rapidly increased, leading to an increasingly prominent contradiction between the reverse distribution of power supply and load. To alleviate generation-side scheduling pressure, large power consumers are regarded as key flexible resources on the load side and are utilized to maintain power supply-demand balance. The current electricity market model is evolving from "two-round declaration with coordinated clearing" approach to a "coupled declaration with unified clearing" mechanism. Under this new model, large consumers are directly exposed to cascading risks caused by the uncertainty of cross-provincial renewable energy output, making traditional risk assessment methods inadequate. To address this, this paper proposes treating renewable energy output uncertainty as a single risk source and constructing a dual-dimension risk assessment model based on credit and price, to support risk management decisions of large power consumers in unified-clearing cross-provincial transactions. [Methods] Firstly, quantitatively characterizing credit risks such as power shortages, premium pricing, and curtailment caused by physical deviations using the variance method, while measuring price risks including extreme, opportunity, and volatility risks arising from market electricity price fluctuations using conditional value-at-risk (CVaR). Secondly, the entropy weight method is employed to objectively weight the aforementioned multi-dimensional risk indicators, quantifying them as risk costs and integrating them into inter-provincial-intra-provincial unified clearing to establish an optimized clearing model that accounts for consumer risk preferences. Finally, typical scenarios of inter-provincial spot trading are simulated to validate the effectiveness of the proposed risk assessment model. [Results] Compared with the generic risk indicators, the proposed method reduces electricity procurement costs for large consumers by 1.4%-2.5% under renewable penetration levels of 10%-55%. The low-price opportunity loss is effectively avoided. [Conclusions]The proposed risk evaluation indicators can effectively and accurately quantify renewable-energy-induced credit and price risks faced by large consumers in inter-provincial spot trading, thereby providing a quantitative basis for differentiated risk warning and power purchase decision-making.
interprovincial electricity spot market / uncertainty / risk quantification / large consumer decision-making / clearing model
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作者贡献声明(Authors' Contributions): 姚寅提出研究思路,设计整体框架,参与修订论文;高璐青构建信用-价格双维度风险评估模型,参与撰写论文并修订论文;周波负责风险指标方法设计,参与修订论文;马恒瑞负责文献综述,参与模型讨论与算例验证;李东东负责新能源不确定性建模与场景生成,参与论文修订;林顺富审核风险评估逻辑与出清模型合理性。所有作者均阅读并同意了论文终稿内容。
利益冲突声明(Conflict of Interests): 所有作者声明不存在利益冲突。
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