An Improved Closed-loop Predict-and-optimize Intertwined Framework-based Two-stage Dispatch for Hydropower-wind-photovoltaic Involved Power Systems

LIU Jichun; XIAO Yujin; QIU Gao; TANG Lun; SUN Yi; LI Linghao

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Electric Power Construction ›› 2025

An Improved Closed-loop Predict-and-optimize Intertwined Framework-based Two-stage Dispatch for Hydropower-wind-photovoltaic Involved Power Systems

LIU Jichun¹, XIAO Yujin¹, QIU Gao¹, TANG Lun^2,3, SUN Yi³, LI Linghao⁴

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Abstract

[Objective] The strong randomness of hydropower, wind power and photovoltaic power exacerbates the contradiction between computational complexity and operational economy of the traditional open-loop predict-then-optimize (OPO) dispatch. [Methods] To conquer this, a two-stage dispatch method based on the improved closed-loop predict-and-optimize intertwined framework (CPO) for hydropower-wind-photovoltaic involved power systems is proposed. Firstly, a two-stage dispatch model for hydropower-wind-photovoltaic power systems involving series, parallel and hybrid-connected hydropower groups is constructed. Then, to train an economy-oriented prediction model for inflow and renewable energy generation, a loss function is established by taking absolute deviation between the system cost calculated by the ground truths and predictions of inflow and renewable energies. Finally, by combining the variance, Bollinger bands and autocorrelation function, the fluctuation intensities of renewable energy generation and hydropower inflow are quantified, such that a hybrid regularization strategy involving Elastic Net Regression is constructed to balance the training complexity and performance of CPO under multiple uncertainties. [Results] The Matlab simulation results show that, during the typical months of the wet, dry, and normal water periods, the monthly average actual system cost obtained by using the improved CPO method is reduced by 0.74%, 0.57%, and 0.66%, respectively, compared with the traditional OPO method, which verifies the effectiveness of this method in improving the economic efficiency of power dispatch. [Conclusions] The improved CPO method proposed in this paper significantly reduces the actual system cost and optimizes the economic efficiency of dispatch when the overall prediction accuracy of hydropower inflow, wind power, and photovoltaic power decreases slightly and the accuracy increases in some periods. Moreover, in scenarios with a higher degree of uncertainty, the effect of this method in improving economic efficiency is even more prominent.

Key words

hydropower plant group / inflow prediction / unit commitment / closed-loop predict-and-optimize intertwined framework / Elastic Net Regression

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LIU Jichun, XIAO Yujin, QIU Gao, TANG Lun, SUN Yi, LI Linghao. An Improved Closed-loop Predict-and-optimize Intertwined Framework-based Two-stage Dispatch for Hydropower-wind-photovoltaic Involved Power Systems[J]. Electric Power Construction. 2025

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