A Practical Method for Probabilistic Analysis of Electric Power and Energy Balance of New Power System

LI Wanru; GUO Jincheng; WANG Jianxue; WANG Xiuli; YANG Qian; MA Qian

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Electric Power Construction ›› 2025

A Practical Method for Probabilistic Analysis of Electric Power and Energy Balance of New Power System

LI Wanru¹, GUO Jincheng¹, WANG Jianxue¹, WANG Xiuli¹, YANG Qian¹, MA Qian²

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Abstract

[Objective] With the strong randomness and frequent occurrence of extreme events brought about by the high proportion of new energy grid connection, the model of using deterministic methods to construct power and energy balance tables becomes unsuitable. [Methods] On the basis of the widely recognized balance table form that has been practiced for many years, this article constructs probabilistic scenarios and designs a practical method for probabilistic analysis of power and energy balance. Specifically, a probabilistic analysis framework for power and energy balance is established, and methods for constructing typical, edge, and extreme scenarios are proposed. The overall framework of the probabilistic power and energy balance table is designed, and balancing risk assessment based on indicators of balance margin and new energy consumption index is conducted. For key periods with severe balancing risks, an index system of power and energy balance analysis is designed, and a refined balance state evaluation is carried out using time-series production simulation. [Results] The results of the probabilistic power and energy balance table of the improved ROTS test system show that it is in a tight balance state throughout the year; in a typical scenario with a probability of 91.36% in November, the power and energy balance can be maintained; in the tightest supply scenario in November, the energy balance margin is 97% and the maximum power shortage is 2.66 GW, which are close to the results of the time-series production simulation. [Conclusions] The test system examples verify that the proposed method can not only adapt well to high proportion of new energy grid-connected scenarios, but also adopt different dimensions of analysis based on balancing risks, which can well meet the needs of engineering applications.

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power and energy balance / probabilistic analysis / multi-scenarios construction / time-series production simulation / balancing risk

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LI Wanru, GUO Jincheng, WANG Jianxue, WANG Xiuli, YANG Qian, MA Qian. A Practical Method for Probabilistic Analysis of Electric Power and Energy Balance of New Power System[J]. Electric Power Construction. 2025

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Funding

National Key Research and Development Program of China “Key Technologies on Intelligent Dispatch of Power Grid under 20% New Energy Integration Scenario” (No. 2022YFB2403500).